Month: March 2020

Bank of Ningbo (002142)： Outstanding performance of deposit growth and growth of stable asset quality and excellent

Bank of Ningbo (002142): Outstanding performance of deposit growth and growth of stable asset quality and excellent

Event: The first quarter report of 19 was released. The revenue, PPOP and profit growth steadily increased to 23.

43%, 24.

95%, 20.

06%, bad rate (0.

78%), provision coverage (520.

(6%), which is flat month-on-month, and asset quality remains stable and excellent.

In addition, its Q1 deposits increased by as much as 16.

7%, bright performance.

The performance growth was dazzling and the profitability was steadily enhanced.

1) Accelerated performance growth.

19Q1 revenue, PPOP, and attributable profit growth have increased significantly by 8 in Q4 earlier than in 18 years ago.

70, 6.

Eleven, four.

96 tablets to 23.

43%, 24.

95%, 20西安耍耍网.

06%.

2) Net interest margin and net interest margin have steadily increased.

19Q1 net interest margin is 1.

75%, after excluding the impact of the new standard switch, the net interest margin under the same caliber, the net interest margin level is 1.
.

98%, 2.

26%, a steady increase of 1bp and 6bps over the previous 18 years.

Rising interest rate spreads have driven growth in net interest rate income (17.

99%) The previous 18 years have steadily improved by 1.
.

32 only.

3) Central income continued to pick up.

Q1 program fee and commission net income growth rate reached 17.

40%, a significant increase of 16.
.

01 pc, it is expected that advantageous businesses such as bank cards and international business will continue to grow rapidly.

4) ROA continues to improve.

Up to 0.

12 pieces to 1.

19%, core profitability has steadily increased.

Asset-side: Loans grew steadily, and retail loans declined amid the worsening of ABS.

Total assets in the first quarter increased by 3.
99%, of which net loans increased by 4.

13%.

Among the newly issued 15.4 billion loans, public loans increased by about 17 billion, and bills increased by about 4.5 billion; retail loans decreased by about 60 billion; it is estimated that the main reason is the fluctuation of the speed of ABS’s billing, and the actual investment rhythm may remain stable.
Debt side: Deposits increase and grow, and appropriately reduce interbank debt + interbank certificates of deposit.

The balance of deposits in 19Q1 reached 754.8 billion yuan, a significant increase over the end of 18% 16.

7%; of which, personal deposits increased by approximately 31.2 billion (+25.

5%), the company’s deposits increased by about 69 billion (+13.

2%).

Considering the initial size of deposits of non-bank institutions, the deposit scale was 816.1 billion, an increase of 665 earlier.

600 million, a growth rate of about 9%.

In addition, under the environment of slightly rising interest rates at the end of March, inter-bank debts and inter-bank certificates of deposit (under the wind caliber) decreased by 27 billion, 46.6 billion, respectively, and the proportion of inter-bank certificates of deposit + inter-bank liabilities decreased by 7.

8 to 16 pieces.

9% (also partly due to a significant increase in the proportion of deposits 7.
.

8pc to 70.

3%).

Asset quality continues to be outstanding.

19Q1 bad rate (0.

78%), provision coverage (520.

(6%) were flat month-on-month.

The proportion of attention-oriented loans increased slightly by 9bps to 0.

64%, but still in an acceptable position.

On the whole, asset quality continued to remain solid and outstanding.

Investment suggestion: The company’s fundamentals are better among listed city commercial banks, the comprehensive management capability has changed, and the asset quality has always been stable and excellent. We are optimistic about the long-term investment value and give it a certain estimated premium.

It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the mother in 192/21/21 will be 134.

16/160.

97/193.

15 billion, BVPS is 14.

86/17.

47/20.

60 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: Macroeconomic growth is accelerating, monetary policy is shifting, and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations is less than expected.

CITIC Bank (601998) 2018 Annual Report Comment： Profit Growth Segment Assets Asset Quality Improves

CITIC Bank (601998) 2018 Annual Report Comment: Profit Growth Segment Assets Asset Quality Improves

This report reads: CITIC Bank’s 2018 performance basically meets expectations, with rapid revenue growth, interest margins rebounding 重庆耍耍网 sequentially, and asset quality improving.

Target price 8.

88 yuan, maintaining the overweight level.

Investment points: Investment advice: Considering the 19-year macroeconomic uncertainty, lower the forecast for net profit growth in 19/20/21 to 6.

74% / 6.

71% / 6.

28%, EPS0.

97 (-0.

07) / 1.

04 (-0.

14) / 1.

10 yuan, BVPS 8.

88/9.

65/10.

46 yuan, the current price corresponds to 6.

28/5.

89/5.

54 times PE, 0.

69/0.

63/0.

58 times PB.

Reduce the target price to 8 in compliance with the market environment.

88 yuan, corresponding to 1 in 19 years.

0 times PB, maintaining the overweight rating.

New understanding: The performance is basically in line with expectations, and the quality of assets generally improves the profit growth rate.

The growth rate of 18A net profit decreased by 1 from 18Q1-3 earlier.

6 to 5 pieces.

8%, attributable to the weak growth rate of non-interest income and the expected decrease in contribution, mainly due to the high base effect of 17Q4.

18Q1-2 is the peak of non-interest net income in a single quarter, and the base effect is expected to continue for 1-2 quarters.

The interest rate differential rebounded month-on-month.

The 18A gradual net interest margin (daily average) + 2bps compared to the previous month was attributable to: ① The retail transformation at the asset end drove up the loan yield.

82% of new loans in 18H2 went to retail, the number of 18A mobile banking customers, and the number of credit card reissues increased by 32% and 35%, respectively. ② The cost of interbank debt on the debt side decreased.Judging that the cost of interbank debt still has room to fall.

Asset quality is improving.
The performance is as follows: the 18Q4 bad rate and increasing bad bad rate are down 1bp and 14bp, respectively, the attention rate and overdue rate are 18bp and 4bp lower than 18H1, and the change degree is 2pc to 92% lower than 18H1.

Due to the weak revenue end, the provision for 18Q4 provision weakened, the provision coverage ratio still fell 3pc to 158%, and the provision loan fell 8bp to 2 from the previous quarter.

80%.

Risk Tips: Economic Downturn Leads to Increased Credit Risk, Retail Conversions Cause Bad and Rapid Exposure

Bank of Beijing (601169) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review： Provision coverage ratio picks up

Bank of Beijing (601169) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Provision coverage ratio picks up

Bank of Beijing disclosed its third quarter report for 2019. Bank of Beijing achieved net profit of 18.1 billion US dollars in the first three quarters of 2019, a further increase of 8%.

8%.

Profitability stabilized in the first three quarters of 2019. The average ROE is expected to decrease by 0 year-on-year.

1 average, where ROA0.

92%, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.

01 averages.

From DuPont’s analysis, there are two changes, but the directions are opposite and they are basically transformed: one is that the net interest margin has improved, and the other is that the asset impairment loss / average asset 深圳spa会所 has increased.

The repricing of interbank financing has ended. The net interest margin (reverting FVPL investment income to interest income) calculated from the average balance at the beginning and end of the first three quarters of use has increased by 24bps to 2.

08%, mainly due to the improvement in debt costs, that is, benefit from the decline in interbank financing rates.

However, in the third quarter, the net interest margin in the third quarter increased by only 4bps compared with the second quarter, with little change. Among them, the interest rate on interest-bearing debts remained flat, which meant that the repricing of interbank financing had ended.

Provisions increased, and provision coverage ratio rebounded. From the perspective of NPL indicators: NPL ratio at the end of the third quarter 1.
.

41%, a decrease of 4bps month-on-month; provision coverage ratio at the end of the third quarter rose by 16% to 229%, and asset impairment losses increased by 39%, affecting ROA, mainly due to the company’s active increase in provisioning in the case of a significant increase in PPOPIncreased strength leads.

In terms of asset growth, the balance sheet dropped slightly. In the first three quarters, total assets increased.

8%, slightly down.

In the third quarter, the supplementary interest-generating assets in the third quarter were 106 million U.S. dollars, of which the loan increased by 39.1 billion U.S. dollars, which was much higher than the same period of the previous year;The US dollar shows that deposit pressure remains.

Investment recommendation The overall performance of the company is basically in line with expectations, and we maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.

Risks suggest that 深圳桑拿网 the continued weakening of macroeconomic expectations may adversely affect the quality of bank assets.

China Micro Corporation (688012)： Leading company in semiconductor equipment

China Micro Corporation (688012): Leading company in semiconductor equipment

Core Opinion: China Semiconductors: a leading semiconductor equipment 淡水桑拿网 company China Semiconductors is a leading semiconductor equipment company. Its main products include etching equipment, MOCVD equipment, etc. At present, the company’s plasma etching equipment has been widely used by international first-line customers from 65 nmTo 14 nanometers, 7 nanometers and 5 nanometers of integrated circuit processing and manufacturing and advanced packaging, the company’s MOCVD equipment has become the world’s top, domestically occupied gallium nitride-based LED MOCVD equipment.

Dividends on investment in semiconductor equipment brought by industrial transfer, localization is accelerating and it has risen to the national strategic pattern through the development of semiconductors. Domestic Yangtze River storage, Huali Micro, etc. have entered the investment cycle, driving the localization of upstream equipment.

Microelectronics etching equipment grasped the potential of domestic investment, and orders increased rapidly.

Mainland LED chip manufacturers have significantly expanded their production, driving demand for MOCVD, and China Microelectronics has integrated its domestic and cost advantages into half the world.

Etching and gas phase epitaxial growth technology are at the advanced level in the world. The main product for the development of micro-semiconductors has been raised since 2004. The main products include CCP etching equipment, ICP etching equipment and third-generation MOCVD equipment, etc.And MOCVD equipment technology is at the world advanced level.

The average value of the raised capital of the company is around the main business. The total investment of the project is US $ 1 billion. The estimated investment amount of the raised capital is US $ 1 billion. The investment includes high-end semiconductor equipment expansion and upgrading projects, technology research and development center construction and upgrading projects, and supplementary working capital.

The 19-21 results are expected to be 0.

38/0.

51/0.

68 yuan / share is expected to earn 21 in 2019-2021.

38/26.

69/34.

280,000 yuan, considering the number of shares after issue 5.

3.5 billion shares, the company is expected to earn 0 in 2019-2021.

38/0.

51/0.

68 yuan.

According to the estimation results of the comparable company assessment method, the company’s reasonable value range corresponds to 7-8 times in 19 years, and we believe that the company’s reasonable and reasonable value range is 27.

97-31.

97 yuan / share.

Risk prompts downstream investment risks; patent risks; technology upgrade risks; R & D capabilities replacing the risks of matching customer needs; overestimating risks.

GAC Group (601238) Company Review： Steady Close 20 Years of Autonomy & Fick Is Expected to Meet the Turning Point

GAC Group (601238) Company Review: Steady Close 20 Years of Autonomy & Fick Is Expected to Meet the Turning Point

Event: GAC released December production and sales report: total sales of 18.

60,000 vehicles, 0% per year, -5% from the previous month.

Among them, ① autonomous 3.

90,000 vehicles, -22% a year, + 2% MoM; ② joint venture: Guangben 6.

30,000 vehicles, -8% at the beginning of the year, -9% MoM, progressive + 4%; Guangfeng 5.

80,000 vehicles, + 37% a year, -15% month-on-month, cumulative + 18%; 10,068 units of Guangfei Ke, -1% per year, + 67% month-on-month; Guang Mitsubishi 1.

40,000 vehicles, + 1% a year, + 13% MoM.

Opinion: The sales volume of GAC Group has narrowed further.

Among them, Guangfeng continued to maintain two-digit high growth; Autonomous continued to climb with GS4, and sales continued to improve on a sequential basis; Guangfeike temporarily declined slightly, and wholesale “bottom-flooding” approached the angle of attack.

In terms of new models, Guangben Haoying went on sale at the end of November and 青岛夜网 benchmarked the 200,000-year sales model CR-V. Guangfeng Weilanda tried to go on sale in April and benchmarked the 100,000+ annual sales model RAV4. Sales are worth looking forward to.
In addition, the company has set a sales target of 8% growth 20 years ago, but we think there is hope to exceed it.

[Japanese joint venture]Japanese joint venture brands of “King of Stock” continued to rise.

Guangfeng continued to be strong in December, with a 37% increase in sales growth.

Although Guangben fluctuated slightly in December, the new compact SUV Haoying is in the climbing phase.

It is estimated that Hao Ying fills the gap of Guang Ben in the compact SUV field; the reorganization, Hao Ying fully benchmarked the 200,000-year-old star model Tomoto CR-V, and promoted the sales of Guang Ben to a higher level.

Guangfeng Weilanda will be listed in April 20th. While the brand is in a strong product cycle, the company is accelerating the layout of new projects to promote the rise of the brand: 1) Guangfeng new energy vehicle production capacity expansion, the first and second phases of the project totalAn additional 400,000 units / year will be produced and it is planned to be completed and put into operation in 2022. 2) The construction of Guangfeng Engine’s TNGA series engine construction project has been implemented with a project scale of 43.

20,000 units / year, planned to be completed in 2021. Guangfeng is expected to increase sales in the next 2-3 years.

In the long run, we believe that behind the Japanese product cycle, there is a change in car consumption sentiment, long-term vehicles such as fuel-saving economy and low-maintenance maintenance have improved significantly. The trend of Japanese expansion in the future will become more and more significant.

[Passenger car]The new product cycle is about to start.

GAC Trumpchi has implemented large-scale destocking since 2019, and the current inventory is healthy.

In terms of sales, the Trumpchi brand climbed with the GS4 in December, and sales continued to pick up month-on-month.

In addition, the discount of the old GS4 has penetrated (about 20,000). After the new model is launched, the discount will be significantly narrowed, and there will be no discount in the short term, which is expected to drive a significant increase in the profitability of the Trumpchi brand.

Investment suggestion: With the gradual warming of the industry, it is recommended to focus on the high growth of the Japanese line of GAC Group and the repair of independent profitability.

Because the Air Force is optimistic about the company’s sales growth in the fourth quarter, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother for 2019-2021 is 77.

3, 104.

5, 133.

8 trillion down to 73.

7,104.

2,130.

30,000 yuan, EPS is 0.

72, 1.

02, 1.

27 yuan / share, continue to give a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: automobile production and sales, competitiveness of Japanese products, Chuanqi sales improvement is less than expected, etc.

Mingyang Intelligence (601615)： High-performance growth of wind turbine delivery accelerated

Mingyang Intelligence (601615): High-performance growth of wind turbine delivery accelerated

The company released the third quarter report for 2019 and achieved revenue of 72 in the first three quarters.

100,000 yuan, an increase of 58 in ten years.

87%, net profit attributable to mothers5.

140,000 yuan, an increase of 98 in ten years.

59%, net profit after deduction is 4

470,000 yuan, an increase of 107 in ten years.

90%.

Revenue in the third quarter was 31.

95 ppm, an increase of 60 in ten years.

11%, an increase of 40 from the previous month.

81%, net profit attributable to mothers1.

80 ppm, a 59-year increase of 59.

04%, down 38% from the previous month.

98%, mainly due to the transfer income of more than 200 million power plants in the second quarter.

　　The delivery of wind turbines is accelerated and the cost is well controlled: the company achieved a wind turbine revenue of 33 ppm and a gross profit margin of 18 in the first half of the year.

5%, the third quarter revenue increased by 40.

81%, the company’s fan delivery accelerated.

　　The company’s overall gross margin in the third quarter was 22.

29%, a decrease of 0 from the second quarter.

32 averages. Due to the increase in the percentage of wind turbine revenue in the third quarter, the gross profit margin of wind turbines is expected to increase sequentially.

In the first three quarters, the company’s sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratios were 8 respectively.

61/4.

00/2.

98/3.

09, for a total of 18.

68%, which decreases by 1 each year.

49/1.

92/0.

82/1.

01 averages, a total decrease of 5.

24 units.

Expenses for the third quarter 15.

19%, down 6 from the previous month.

27 units.

　　Too many orders in hand, leading offshore wind turbines: In the 深圳桑拿网 first half of the year, the company replenished 6 GW of bids and 12 GW of orders in hand, of which 2 was replenished at sea.

16GW, gradually ordering 4GW, the company has significant advantages in Guangdong offshore wind power location, the development of transfer offshore projects is accelerated, and order delivery will also be accelerated.

At the end of the third quarter, the company’s inventory was 24.

300 million, an increase of 68 at the end of the previous 18 years.45%, advance payment 30.

60,000 yuan, an increase of 64 over the end of 18 years.

01%, an increase of 26 over the previous 19 years.

53%, advance payment 5.

530,000 yuan, an increase of 137 over the end of 18 years.

21%, an increase of 138 over 19 years.

36%.

From the leading indicators of the balance sheet, it can be judged that the company’s 杭州夜网论坛 delivery is about to usher in high growth, and there is a sufficient response in the upstream supply chain.

　　Relying on its own regional advantages and product advantages, the company’s market share has continued to increase in the upward cycle of the industry boom.

　　Profit forecast: The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.

52, 0.

79 and 1.

00 yuan, given an overweight rating.

　　Risk warning: wind power replenishment installed exceeds expectations, gross margin improvement exceeds expectations

Xiamen Tungsten (600549)： Lithium-ion materials business bottoms out

Xiamen Tungsten (600549): Lithium-ion materials business bottoms out

Lithium-ion materials business: bottoming out and picking up The company’s battery materials include lithium-ion materials and hydrogen storage alloys, of which the capacity of lithium-ion materials is 4.

6 trace amounts (including ternary, lithium cobaltate, lithium manganate and lithium iron phosphate, etc.).

18 and 19 Q1 lithium ion materials sales were 2 respectively.

5 and 0.

The average value is 7 and the average quality is 32.

5 and 230,000 yuan / ton, 19 years of H1 battery materials realized revenue and gross profit of 3.4 billion 重庆耍耍网 and 2 respectively.

63 trillion, of which Xiamen Tungsten New Energy realized revenue and net profit of 33 trillion and -0, respectively.

25 million US dollars, the company’s downstream customers are long-term domestic large-scale companies with high customer stickiness. The company’s 19 year H1 sales continued to increase, mainly because the company’s lithium ion material main raw material prices fell to drive product prices down. Q3 cobaltPrices have rebounded, and battery materials business has achieved profitability. In the future, the supply of cobalt industry will improve and demand will increase. The price of cobalt is expected to continue to rebound. It is expected that the company’s lithium ion material prices will rise as the cobalt price rises, and the lithium ion material business is expected to bottom out and rebound.

Tungsten and molybdenum business: Tungsten prices are expected to pick up and profitability will improve. The company’s annual output of tungsten concentrates in three mines in 2018 was 1.

2 Nominal (Luoyang Yulu shares account for 60%), second only to Minmetals.

Affected by the decline in tungsten prices, the tungsten and molybdenum sector in the first three quarters of 2019 has gradually realized profit growth2.

10,000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 76%.

The total demand for tungsten in 2019 is mainly due to the decrease in demand for cemented carbide rods (the downstream demand for bars is mainly automotive and consumer electronics). The current trend of automotive trends benefits from the marginal improvement in 5G consumer electronics demand.Hope to pick up.

As the leader of the domestic tungsten industry, the company’s tungsten molybdenum business has significantly improved its profitability.

The investment proposal estimates that the company’s EPS in 19-21 will be 0.

11 yuan, 0.

27 yuan and 0.

46 yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 114.

6 times, 49.

1x and 28.

Three times, considering the company’s industry level, the company is given a “Buy” rating with a six-month target price of 16.

97 yuan.

Shiji Information (002153)： Gained positive evaluation from high-end chain customers to promote the in-depth advantages of overseas cloud products

Shiji Information (002153): Gained positive evaluation from high-end chain customers to promote the in-depth advantages of overseas cloud products
Minor Hotel is an international high-end hotel.(1) Minor Hotel is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, with 520 hotels, covering 52 countries in the Asia-Pacific Middle East and a total of 85,000 employees; (2) Minor Hotel includes NH Hotels, NH Collection, Marriott Hotels & Resorts and other chain brands.　　The cooperation between the two parties is mainly Review Pro products, and the effect has been recognized by customers.(1) ReviewPro has been deployed at Minor Hotel since December 2016, and it has been nearly 3 years; (2) Through Review Pro, Minor Group affiliated hotels have achieved an increase of 14% in NPS (net recommendation) and a GRI increase of 1.3%, the Secretary-General ‘s response time increased by 30%, etc .; (3) The management team of Minor Hotel includes Marcus Christiansen, Director of Operations, and Thomas B., Vice President of Operations Management, Asia Pacific. Meier et al. Spoke highly of the company.　　We believe that the success of ReviewPro reflects the in-depth advantages of Shiji products, and the possibility of cross-selling in the future.(1) The democratic market mainly focuses on the implementation of the company’s POS and PMS, and has reduced attention to big data products; (2) The success of the release of ReviewPro reflects its product and service capabilities, and the case of Minor Hotel reflects the actuality of its productsUtility and value; (3) Minor Hotel ‘s operating director has stated clearly that he will continue to deepen cooperation with the company in the future. We expect that through 夜来香体验网 the success of ReviewPro, other products of the company are expected to continue to enter Minor Hotel; (4) If a similar cross-selling model is successfulWe believe that a certain network effect will be formed to accelerate the implementation of Shiji’s overseas cloud products.　　Estimates suggest that we keep our earnings forecasts unchanged.The current corresponding P / E of 2019 / 2020e is 90x / 75x.According to the SOTP model, we maintain the company’s target price of 49 yuan, and the P / E corresponding to 2019 / 2020e is 102x / 86x, which corresponds to the current total of 13%.Maintain Outperform rating.　　Risks The progress of overseas cloud is less than expected; systematic estimates.

Changbao shares (002478)： Q3 oil and gas pipe profits remain stable

Changbao shares (002478): Q3 oil and gas pipe profits remain stable

Event 2019 Q3 Welded Steel Pipe 3 * 3.

The national average price of 75 is 4,209 yuan / ton, and the national average price of seamless pipe 219 * 6 is 4,夜来香体验网695 yuan / ton, which is roughly the same as Q2.

　　Investment Highlights The mid-to-high price of oil and gas pipe-related products was affected by factors such as the “three barrels of oil” capital expansion and the steady supply of oil and gas pipes.

Taking the prices of welded steel pipes and seamless steel pipes as an example, in the first three quarters of 2019, welded steel pipes 3 * 3.

The average price of 75 countries maintains a high level of operation, with a maximum of 4261 yuan / ton and a minimum of 4169 yuan / ton; the national average price of seamless pipes 219 * 6 is highest of 4808 yuan / ton and minimum of 4652 yuan / ton;The high level is roughly equivalent to the 2017-2018 price.

In terms of raw materials, although the prices of billets and strips are at a relatively high level, the trend is relatively 北京夜生活 weak.

　　In Q3 2019, the profit of related products of oil and gas pipes remained stable. In Q1 2019, the price difference between seamless steel pipes and raw materials remained stable. The price difference of welded pipes decreased slightly but maintained a high level.

Welded steel pipe 3 * 3.

The national average price of 75, the average price in the first three quarters of 2019 remained at about 4,200 yuan / ton, but the price of strip steel rose slightly, so the spread narrowed slightly to 300 yuan / ton.

Compared with the same period last year, the decline in welded pipes is smaller than that in strip steel, and the gap has widened to 4.

7 units.

The national average price of seamless pipe 219 * 6 performed better, the price remained stable at 4,700 yuan / ton, and the price difference with raw materials remained at 1,200 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the widening trend of price scissors differences between varieties in the fourth quarter of 2019 will remain stable.

　　Earnings forecasts and estimates remain unchanged for the company’s earnings forecasts and buy ratings. It is expected that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be zero.

63/0.

78/0.

93 yuan; P / E is 10 respectively.

02 times / 8.

08 times / 6.

77 times, continue to recommend.

　　Risk reminder: The price of raw materials such as iron ore scrap and steel rises, and the risk of stock pledge increases.

Keming Noodle Industry (002661) In-depth report： High-end + low-end two-wheel drive growth in the stage of strategic transformation

Keming Noodle Industry (002661) In-depth report: High-end + low-end two-wheel drive growth in the stage of strategic transformation

Ping An Viewpoint: Summary: The company is a nationwide leader in noodles that is undergoing rapid growth. The new spindle has great vision and aggressively promotes strategic transformation. The company’s performance has been slightly ups and downs due to business adjustments, but the prospects for new business are increasingly bright.

Looking to the future, the long-term high-end noodle business is still growing, and it is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of more than 10%, and the self-supply of flour will increase and the profit will increase.In the end market, after nearly two years of gradual completion of the company’s products, channels, and production capacity adjustment, the low-end noodles entered a rapid sprint period in 19 years.

Leaders smoothly transferred, and a new strategic idea was gradually formed: the company is a leading company in the noodle industry in China. Its production capacity, scale and market share are among the best in the industry. The founder Chen Keming 杭州桑拿 is the actual controller of the company.

In 2016, the company’s core leadership took over from the old to the new. Chen Hong, the son of the founder, served as the general manager, and the corresponding senior management team also made major adjustments.

With the main trend changing, 16-17 years can be described as the transition period of the company’s strategy. Since 18 years, the company’s overall development thinking has gradually become clear. It proposes that the industrial chain should be extended upstream to reduce costs, and strive for low-end markets with cost-effective strategies, supplemented by wetNew development strategy for noodle and noodle seed business cultivation.

Under the new strategy exploration and transformation, the company’s performance has slightly changed due to business adjustments, but the prospects for new business are becoming brighter.

The growth potential of high-end noodles is still sufficient. Use the leading partition to enjoy the upgrade bonus: Although the noodle industry demand is relatively saturated, the high-end noodles have a small base and large space, and continue to maintain a rapid expansion rate for a long time.A healthy competitive environment.

As an absolute leader of high-end noodles, the company has a strong brand recognition, shelf monopoly, and scale advantages to build a broad moat, and has effective functionalization, subdivided product innovation and standardized marketing system. At the same time, refinement continues to strengthen the company’s competitiveness and low-end noodles.The heavy volume is also expected to help accelerate the introduction of high-end noodles to the county and township market channels.

Therefore, the company is expected to benefit from the consumption upgrade dividend, high-end products are expected to maintain a compound growth rate of more than 10%, and the increase in the proportion of self-supply of flour will promote high-end gross profit margins in the next 3 years or 3.

5 pieces, significantly increasing the profit contribution of high-end suspension surfaces.

The low-end noodles entered the era of large integration, and quickly entered the market to harvest the share of miscellaneous cards. The low-end noodles market has a large stock space and the market distribution is scattered and enters the rapid reshuffle period.

Although Jinsha River is the first to take the lead, its scale is far ahead of its peers, but its market share is still replaceable relative to the low-end total scale of 500 inches, and the rising stars still have opportunities for growth.

The company is seizing the potential of the industry, is cutting into the low-end market, learning the successful experience of competing products, adopting measures such as base reconstruction and wheat storage & self-supply to fully integrate the supply chain to reduce production costs, and promotes channels to the county and township markets, as well as grain, oil, and agricultural trade., Wholesale and other distribution channels sink.

With the steady advancement of production capacity and channel adjustment, the company officially launched a new cost-effective new product “Wide Thin Circle” in early 19th, cutting into the low-end mainstream price band.

At present, the new products of “Wide and Fine Circles” are selling well, and they have tried hard to make a big splash.

We estimate that under the rapid volume of low-end noodles, the company’s sales of Ru Pasta are expected to exceed 50% in 21 years, which will lead to a compound growth of more than 20% of Ru Pasta’s revenue. In the future, the capacity of new plants will be fully released and flour mills will be put into production.The gross profit margin is expected to be on a par with the leading low-end noodles leading companies, recovering to about 15%.

Wugu Dojo stopped bleeding successfully, and wheat prices dropped to reduce costs: After the company completed the acquisition of Wugu Dojo in June of 2017, it made in-depth adjustments from cost, channel, and management in multiple dimensions, and has achieved better results.

In 18 years, Wugu Dojo was still offset by about 2,000 trillion due to the relocation of production bases and environmental protection factors, but 1H19 has successfully turned losses into profits. Under the operating strategy of “full cost reduction and widening the country ‘s channels”, it is expected to have 19 years of revenue.Total profit has improved significantly.

Thanks to the high grain output and the reduction in the minimum purchase price, wheat prices have fallen slightly in 19 years, and under the background of the continuous advancement of agricultural supply-side structural reforms and high policy wheat stocks, wheat prices may continue to decline for 20 years.Conducive to the company’s cost pressure gradually eased.

Investment suggestion: The company’s high-end business still has growth potential, and the low-end business is becoming a new growth point under the thick accumulation of growth. The growth momentum is increasingly strengthened, and the success of grain dojo hemostasis and the continued decline in wheat prices are favorable. The company’s performance is expected to cross the initial investmentAfter the period back to the fast track of growth.

We maintain the company’s 19-21 EPS to 0.

62, 0.

80, 0.

The forecast of 98 yuan corresponds to 21 for the current PE.

3X, 16.

5X, 13.

4 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk reminders: 1. Risk of intensified industry competition: overcapacity in the noodle industry, product homogeneity, and the possibility of increased competition; 2. risk of major food safety incidents: consumers are particularly sensitive to food safety issues.Food safety accidents, it takes a long time for internal consumers to change their freezing point and rebuild their confidence in the brand; 3. Risks of rising raw material prices: The cost of flour, the main raw material of the product, is relatively high, and the rise in prices may cause performance to fall short of expectations.