Month: April 2020

China National Travel Service (601888) 2019 Performance Express Review Comments： Performance is slightly lower than expected and still optimistic about the potential of tax-free bonus release

China National Travel Service (601888) 2019 Performance Express Review Comments: Performance is slightly lower than expected and still optimistic about the potential of tax-free bonus release

Event: The company announced its 2019 performance report. In 2019, its operating income and net profit attributable to its mothers were 48 billion and 46, respectively.

500 million US dollars, an annual increase of 2.

14% and 50.

38%, net profit deduction to non-attributed 39.

400 million, an annual increase of 25.

4%.

　　The revenue growth was basically in line with expectations, but the profit growth rate slightly exceeded expectations: the company’s revenue growth in 2019 increased to 2.

14%, excluding the impact of the initial travel agency’s performance, with a comparable caliber of 475 billion yuan, a long-term growth of 37%, mainly driven by the high growth of tax-exempt business, basically in line with our expectations.

The company realized net profit attributable to mother 46.

500 million yuan, net of non-attributed net profit of 39.

4 ppm (almost 7 ppm after-tax investment income from travel agencies), of which Q4 achieved return to the mother’s profit4.

5.4 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 17%, exceeding our expectations. We believe that mainly Q4 Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong airports are rapidly affected by external events. Increased discount promotions for Haitang Bay stores and additional costs brought by the opening of the Hexin Island projectExpenses and other factors.

　　Haitang Bay store continues to grow rapidly, short-term growth forecast for Beijing and Shanghai Airport stores: It is estimated that the company’s Haitang Bay store will achieve revenue of nearly 10.6 billion US dollars in 2019, an increase of 32%, of which Q4 will achieve a profit of 3.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 53%.Stimulated by the company’s increased discount promotions, it also caused the Q4 gross profit margin of Haitang Bay stores to be under pressure. For airport stores, it is estimated that Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou airport stores will achieve revenues of 152/95/19 budgets, an increase of 23 throughout the year.% / 16% / 121%, of which in the fourth quarter Beijing and Shanghai were affected by the high base and Hong Kong events, and the growth rate was only about 10% -15%.

　　The tax-free bonus is still being released, and we expect the increase brought by the implementation of the New Deal in the city’s stores: The company is expected to maintain a steady growth rate in 2020. The main highlights include: 1) the stabilization of the exchange rate and the stabilization of the gross profit margin;The airport satellite hall is expected to gradually climb up and contribute incrementally; 3) Sea exemption and consolidation; 4) The new policy of the city’s stores is expected to be implemented, which will bring a tax-free incremental market for the medium and long term.

　　Investment suggestion: We slightly reduce our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s EPS for 19-21 will be 2 respectively.

38, 2.

58 and 3.

04 yuan, corresponding to the latest PE is 3苏州夜网论坛8, 35, 30 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

　　Risk Warning: The opening of tax exemption policy is less than expected; the prosperity of outbound tourism is inclined.

To increase pension income should give more policy enablement to pension investment

To increase pension income should give more policy enablement to pension investment

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　　Original title: The right to give more policy enablement to pension investment Source: Daily Economic News Special commentator Tan Haojun 2020 Global Wealth Management Forum first quarter summit was held in Beijing a few days ago, supervision by the Ministry of Finance, subsidies, bancasThe person in charge of the department said that the three-tier pension insurance system reform will be further improved and the pension management institutions will promote the promotion of the proportion of high-yield assets such as equity.

　　There is no doubt that pensions are a topic of temporary discussion and one of the issues that has attracted 杭州桑拿网 much attention.

A very important reason is that the contradiction between the income and expenditure of pensions is constantly expanding, the pressure on expenditure is increasing, and the phenomenon of non-payment is already occurring in some places.

　　It is appropriate to say that in order to increase the source of income for pensions and better meet the needs of pension expenditures.

In the end, by expanding the area collection, improving the collection efficiency, and expanding the coverage of pension collection, etc., the pension has been better protected from an income perspective.

In particular, the state-owned capital allocation of pensions has achieved a relatively large breakthrough. A series of allocation measures have been introduced in various places, which have laid a feasible foundation for ensuring the reliability and stability of pension income.

　　Fundamentally, as the demand for pensions is increasing, the requirements are also becoming higher and higher. In addition to the means of extended levy and current capital allocation, how to increase pension investment income and ensure that the value of pensions are preserved and increasedAspect.

After all, the scale of pensions is very large. If the return on investment is high, it can effectively increase pension income, insufficient pensions, and reduce the pension gap.

At the very least, it will ensure that pensions do not depreciate.

　　At present, how to ensure the preservation and appreciation of pensions has always been relatively weak.

Until the future, the investment function of pensions will come into play, and the work of maintaining and increasing value will be improved.

Even so, from the perspective of pension investment, it is still obviously inadequate. It does not play a good role in maintaining and increasing value, and the investment income of pensions is still at a level.

Therefore, how to make better use of the investment function of pensions and improve the investment benefits of pensions is very important.

　　There is no doubt that the statement of the regulators this time is indeed a positive signal for pension investment, and a signal that pension investment will be relaxed to a certain extent and supported to a certain extent.

If the three sectors can provide more lenient and convenient policies for pension investment, the door to investment can be opened little by little, the field of investment can be made wider, and the door to investment may be made one by one.This point will have a positive impact on improving the efficiency of pension investment.

　　Following the gradual regulations, for pension investment, “the principle of long-term investment should be adhered to, appropriate risk exposure should be tolerated, the level of pension investment should be further increased, and equity assets and alternative assets should be allocated more.

Under normal circumstances, risks are often used to restrict pension investment. The method of expanding pension investment will likely change to some extent.

Risks still need to be controlled, but risk will no longer be used as an excuse for pension investment, but will be based on the actual situation, to moderately increase the risk tolerance of pensions, give more choices to pension investments, and better increase pension investments.Gains.

　　On the whole, under the situation where the contradiction between pension income and expenditure is becoming increasingly prominent, it is very important how to give more investment to pension policy.

Without sufficient policy empowerment and a certain degree of risk tolerance, it is difficult to obtain higher returns on pension investment.

Shao Neng (000601)： Persistent High Growth Performance Dividend Ratio Exceeds Expectations

Shao Neng (000601): Persistent High Growth Performance Dividend Ratio Exceeds Expectations
Investment Highlights Event: The company released three quarterly reports and achieved revenue of 32 in the first three quarters.68ppm, an increase of 29 per year.99%; net profit attributable to mothers4.78 ppm, an increase of 77 in ten years.98%; net profit after deduction is 4.470,000 yuan, an annual increase of 142.78%. Third-quarter results continued to grow at a high rate, with gross and net profit margins increasing: According to the company’s announcement, revenue for the first three quarters was 32.68 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.99%; net profit attributable to mothers4.7.8 billion, an annual increase of 77.98%; net profit after deduction is 4.470,000 yuan, an increase of 142 in ten years.78%.In the third quarter, it achieved revenue of 10 in a single quarter.740,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.10%; net profit attributable to mother 1.24 ppm, an increase of 92 in ten years.23%; net profit after deduction is 1.110,000 yuan, an annual increase of 102.95%.In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin in the third quarter was 25.90%, increase by 1 every year.75 averages; net margin is 11.93%, an increase of 3 per year.93 grades, while expanding the scale of revenue, significantly improved profitability. Significantly increase the proportion of cash dividends, and the distribution rate is expected to exceed 5%: From 2016 to 2018, the upper limit of the proportion of cash dividends of shareholders in the parent company’s net profit for the current year specified by the company’s original shareholder income plan is 35%, and the actual dividend ratioFor 49.05%, 53.33%, 53.51%, the average annual dividend ratio is 51.96%, which is higher than the company’s original shareholders’ income plan stipulated a higher proportion of cash dividends.In August 2019, the company released a new shareholder return plan (2019-2021), promising that the company’s cash dividend amount in the year of 2019-2021 accounted for about 60% of the net profit 无锡桑拿网 attributable to the parent company, and according to the company’s three quarterly reportAccording to the disclosure, the proportion of cash dividends in the company’s 2019 dividend plan to the net profit attributable to the parent company is proposed to be 65% to 70%, which is equivalent to the current expected dividend rate of more than 5%, and the value attribute is highlighted. The centralized construction of biomass power generation and environmental protection paper tableware projects will continue to help the company’s growth: The company also announced: 1) Investment in the construction of the third and fourth phases of the Xinfeng Biomass Power Generation Expansion Project with a construction scale of 60,000 kilowattsThe total investment yield of the project is 14.24%; 2) Invested in the construction of Wengyuan Biomass Power Generation Phase III and Phase IV projects, with a construction scale of 60,000 kilowatts, and the total investment income of the project is expected to be 9.18%; 3) Invested in the construction of the first phase project of ecological plant fiber paper tableware in Nanxiong Second Park, with a designed annual production capacity of 3.885 Initially, it is expected to achieve operating income after commissioning6.55 ppm / year, total profit is 0.8.6 billion yuan / year. Earnings forecast and investment rating: The company’s EPS for 19-21 is expected to be 0.55, 0.68, 0.76 yuan, corresponding PE is 12, 10, and 9 times respectively. The company also has: 1) Dividends for value stocks: The company promises to increase the cash dividend ratio from 35% to 60% in the year 2019-2021.More than 5%, it is the first among all companies in the hydropower industry; 2) Valuation of cyclical stocks: corresponding to 12 times PE in 2019; 3) Growth rates of growth stocks: 97% in 2019 and 2020 respectively.2%, 23.1%, therefore, we maintain the company’s “Buy” rating. Risk reminder: Macroeconomic downturn affects power demand, and there is a risk of downward price adjustments for hydropower and biomass compensation electricity prices, etc.

Tonghua Dongbao (600867) Important Matters Comment-Insulin Glargine Approved to Market and Try to Open New Development Opportunities

Tonghua Dongbao (600867) Important Matters Comment-Insulin Glargine Approved to Market and Try to Open New Development Opportunities
The company is a pioneer in domestic insulin leadership and chronic disease management layout. Insulin glargine was approved for listing and gradually became the company’s market promotion and channel sinking advantage for many years. It quickly entered the market and has a long-term development prospect. It maintains the EPS forecast for 2019-2021 to be 0.48/0.59/0.72 yuan, corresponding to PE 25/20/17 times, 南宁桑拿 maintaining the “overweight” level. Insulin glargine was approved for marketing.The company’s announcement has obtained the insulin glargine registration approval issued by the State Food and Drug Administration on December 6, 2019. The heavy product was successfully approved, and then gradually replaced the company’s years of market promotion and channel sinking advantages to enter the market quickly.The product was clinically approved in June 2014. The production site inspection and field sampling were completed in May and June 2019, and the three-in-one review was completed in September 2019. The company has invested about 71.81 million yuan in research and development costs.Insulin glargine is a new type of insulin analogue with long-lasting effect, no gradient in blood concentration, and stable reduction of blood glucose in patients. The original manufacturer is Sanofi-Aventis, France. The global value of this product was 49 in 2018.$ 9.5 billion, is the star product of the global diabetes market.Sanofi-Aventis’ insulin glargine was listed in China in 2004. Since then, domestic companies Gan Li Pharmaceutical and Zhuhai Federation have been approved to list related products in 2005 and 2017, respectively. The second-generation insulin has initially recovered, and the long-term R & D layout is worth looking forward to.In the first three quarters of 2019, the parent company realized operating income19.5.1 billion yuan (+12.37%), net profit 6.6.3 billion (+5.34%). At present, the second-generation insulin business has gradually stabilized and rebounded, and is expected to gradually achieve double-digit growth.In addition, the company has a wealth of product reserves. Currently, the asparagus rapid-effect ratio has been reported in April 2019. Aspart 50 has completed clinical research and is expected to enter the production phase in the first half of 2020. Aspart 30 is expected to be available around the end of 2019.Complete the enrollment of all cases, it is expected to enter the stage of reporting labor by the end of 2020 or the first half of 2021; liraglutide is expected to complete the phase III clinical trials by the end of 2020 and enter the stage of reporting labor by 2021.The company has been cultivating the diabetes market for many years. The overall product planning and layout is perfect, and there is good room for long-term development. The operation level has been gradually improved, and the repurchase has shown development confidence.In the first three quarters of 2019, the company made corresponding market preparations for the insulin glargine listing. Current sales expenses increased significantly and the company’s operating level continued to improve. The company’s net operating cycle in the first three quarters of 2019 was 430.In 06 days, the year fell 52.88 days, of which inventory and accounts receivable turnover days decreased by 29.69 days and 0.66 days, payable turnover days increased by 22 over decades.53 days, the improvement of inventory turnover level contributed significantly to the improvement of the overall operation level.In addition, the company has recently announced a repurchase program, the total amount of shares to be repurchased is not less than 2 trillion, not more than 2.The repurchase price is not more than RMB 23 yuan / share (inclusive). The repurchased shares will be used to distribute incentives. This repurchase will enhance investor confidence and further improve the company’s long-term incentive mechanism. Risk factors.The progress of research and development is expected to reduce the price of insulin tenders and prolong the management of chronic diseases. Investment Advice.The company is a pioneer in domestic insulin leadership and chronic disease management layout. Insulin glargine was approved for listing and gradually became 杭州桑拿网 the company’s market promotion and channel sinking advantage for many years. It quickly entered the market and has a long-term development prospect. It maintains the EPS forecast for 2019-2021 to 0.48/0.59/0.72 yuan, corresponding to PE 25/20/17 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Enjie (002812)： Lithium battery crosses global restructuring volume and profits increase

Enjie (002812): Lithium battery crosses global restructuring volume and profits increase

In the first half of 19, net profit attributable to mothers increased rapidly.

On August 24, Enjie released its 19-year interim report with operating income of 13.

78 ppm, an increase of 41 in ten years.

44%, net profit attributable to mother 3.

89 ppm, an increase of 140 in ten years.

98%; deduct non-net profit 3.

23 ppm, an increase of 852 in ten years.

50%.

Of which the second quarter of 19 operating income7.

2.2 billion, an increase of 10 from the previous month.

06%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

77 trillion, molecular weight of 16.

51%.

Breakthrough production capacity ranks first in the world.

The company’s wet lithium battery expansion production scale is currently in a global leading position, and has the world’s largest lithium battery subdivision supply capacity.

The company’s lithium battery volume expansion in the first 都市夜网 half of 19 was three.

5 billion square meters, the world’s largest lithium battery replacement supplier, the market share is also the world’s largest.

The company has entered the supply chain system of mainstream mainstream lithium battery manufacturers in the world, including Ningde Times and BYD.

Breakthrough profitability and rapid profit growth.

In the first half of the year, the company and LG Chem exceeded the total contract amount by no more than 6.

The 1.7 billion-dollar “purchase and sale contract” with a five-year cooperation period further increased global market share.

In the first half of 19, Shanghai Enjie’s operating income8.

33 ppm, an 80-year increase.

02%, net profit 4.

08 million yuan, an increase of 84 in ten years.

25%, corresponding to 3.

The average price of 5 billion wet decompositions is 2.

38 yuan / square, net profit per square meter is 1.

17 yuan.

Wet contraction capacity continues to expand.

The company has set up four large-scale production bases in Shanghai, Zhuhai, Jiangxi and Wuxi in the country. In the first half of 19th, the company launched the second phase of Zhuhai Enjie, invested 4 base film production lines, the project filing has been completed; Jiangxi Tongrui Investment Construction 8 Base film production line project with a capacity of 400 million square meters, 4 production lines have been put into operation in the first half of the year; civil construction of the first phase project of Wuxi Enjie has been completed, 2 production lines have been officially put into operation, and 2 production lines are being installed, It is expected to be put into production in September of 19th. In addition, the company started the second phase of Wuxi Enjie New Material Industrial Base project in July of 19th, and put into operation 8 units with a capacity of 5.

The 200 million square meters of base film production line is expected to have a total investment of 2.8 billion.

Revenue from flat film rose, while smoke film declined.

In terms of other businesses, the flat film market was fiercely competitive in the first half of the year. The company continued to expand market development efforts and continued to optimize production process management to reduce production costs. The company’s flat film operating income was 1 in the first half of the year.

91 ppm, an increase of 22 per year.

22%; tobacco film operating income is 0.

9.3 billion, an annual decrease of 18.

59%, mainly due to the reduction in prices of cigarette film packaging materials by cigarette manufacturers, but the company reduced costs through effective measures such as reasonable production scheduling, which reduced costs by 20%.09%, the gross profit margin of tobacco film increased by 1.
.

27%.

Investment strategies and levels.

Enjie is a global leader in wet battery replacement for power batteries. Benefiting from the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the company’s revenue and profits have achieved steady growth.

We expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 19-21.

00 yuan, 1.

36 yuan, 1.

61 yuan, according to a comparable company’s assessment, according to 19 times 30-35 times PE, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 30.

00-35.

00 yuan, given the “preliminary market” rating.

Risk reminder: New energy vehicle policy changes, market promotion is less than expected.

Chinese Film (600977)： The value of the long-term leader in the steady growth of non-net profit in the third quarter is prominent

Chinese Film (600977): The value of the long-term leader in the steady growth of non-net profit in the third quarter is prominent

Q3’s consolidation effect in Q18 led to the interruption of the quarter’s profit growth, and the net profit after deducting non-return to motherhood in the first three quarters of 19 achieved positive growth.

Revenue in the third quarter of 2019 was 18.

8.5 billion, down 18 a year.

15%, net profit attributable to mother is 1.

92 ppm, a drop of 69 per year.

62%; in the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 67.

2.7 billion, down 2 every year.

82%, realized net profit attributable to mother 8.

74 trillion, down 32 a year.

67%, the net profit after deducting non-attribution is 7.

83 ppm, an increase 合肥夜网 of 2 per year.

36%.

As the company’s Q3 2018 was included in China Film Barco’s consolidated investment income4.

54 ppm, so the profit growth rate in the third quarter of 19, but net profit after deducting non-attribution to achieve positive growth.

Production of film and television productions: The company has a wealth of film stocks, and there are a lot of movies to be released in the fourth quarter.

(1) Film production, the company produced a total of 6 films in the third quarter (at the box office 2).

6.7 billion), a total of 15 films produced in the first three quarters, gradually box office 60.

3.7 billion, accounting for 22 domestic box office in the same period.

2%, mainly contributed by “Wandering Earth”, the company ‘s merger or participation in the production of recently released film projects such as “Chinese Women’s Volleyball Team”, “Pioneer”, “Detective Chinatown 3”, “Island of Hope”, etc., we expect the company’s fourth quarter production businessPerformance will pick up.

Film projects under preparation include “The Starting Point of Red”, “The Autobots of China”, “Renbo Boat”, “34 Days”, “Counterattack”, “Kung Fu Tea”, “The Secret War of Capturing Drugs”, “Mom’s Magic Kid”, “Love You, Sunday “and so on.

(2) TV drama producer, “Locked Room” (26 episodes) produced by the company in the third quarter: “Father’s Prairie Mother’s River”, “People’s Republic of China (tentative name)”, “Black Lighthouse” produced or contributed by the companyMore than 30 TV series (web dramas), including “Dark Love, Orange Health Huainan”, “Dear, Where are you”, “Cranberry Dill”, “Crocodile and Toothpick Bird”, are progressing as planned.

Film distribution: The guarantee above the leader provides long-term driving force for performance.

In 19Q3, the company led or participated in the distribution of 123 domestic films, with a cumulative box office of 21.

21 trillion, accounting for 18 of the box office area of domestic films in the same period.

09%; issued 42 imported films, renewed box office 15.

51 ppm, accounting for 54 of the box office area of the country’s imported films during the same period.

62%.

In the first three quarters, the company led or participated in the distribution of 412 domestic films and gradually made a box office 102.

14 trillion, accounting for 38 of the box office area of domestically produced films.

78%; distribution of 110 imported films, 104 renewal box office.

6 trillion, accounting for 58 of the box office area of the country’s imported films during the same period.

twenty one%.

Ranked in the first half of 19, the company’s issuance business market box office accounted for a slight tilt.

Film screening: The National Day file is blessed, and the rebound of the film market in the fourth quarter will benefit the cinema line.

In the third quarter, the company’s affiliated controlled cinema lines and holding theaters achieved a total of box office 42.

1.8 billion, with a total of 12,120 moviegoers.

80,000 person-times.

In the first three quarters, the company’s controlling shareholding theaters and holding theaters achieved a total of 122 box office.4.7 billion, with a total of 33,686 moviegoers.

920,000 person-times.

As of the end of the third quarter, the company had 136 operating and holding theaters with 1,002 screens. The company’s 4 holding theater lines and 3 participating stock lines had a total of 2,920 theaters and 17,647 screens.

We believe that the box office performance of the National Day film market is better, which is conducive to increasing the revenue of cinema screenings.

profit prediction.

In 2019, the company will continue to deepen the comprehensive development of the entire film industry chain, lead the direction of Chinese film development, and promote domestic films to the world.

We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.

57 yuan, 0.

61 yuan and 0.

66 yuan.

With reference to the similar expected price-earnings ratio of comparable companies in the industry in 2019, considering the company’s comprehensive strength, complete industry chain, extensive brand influence, and rich team experience, we give the company 19 years 25
30 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 14.

25?
17.

10 yuan, given the market rating.

risk warning.

Changes in industrial policies, intensified market competition, illegal piracy, and film and television performance in 19 years were less than expected.

Biyin Lefen (002832)： The second phase of the employee stock plan launched a discount guarantee to grant shared growth dividends

Biyin Lefen (002832): The second phase of the employee stock plan launched a discount guarantee to grant shared growth dividends

Today, the company announced the second phase of the employee stock ownership plan budget. It plans to raise no more than 1 trillion, giving executives and core personnel a total of 900 shares at the average repurchase price.

The scope of the plan’s incentives has been further expanded compared to the previous period, and the share price is 25% off the current price. In addition, the chairman guarantees that the plan will further increase employee motivation.

We believe that the long-term sustained growth of mid- to high-end brands is the same store growth strength based on strong product strength.

By cooperating with global high-quality fabric suppliers and designers at home and abroad, the company makes full use of strong product power and perfect VIP service capabilities, and the same store’s growth strength gradually integrates its peers in a weak urban environment. It is expected that this year will continue to maintain 15-20% of theSame-store growth; At the same time, combined with optimization of store area and location expansion and incremental contribution from new brands, it is expected that this year’s extension will contribute to double-digit growth, so that revenue and net profit will increase by nearly 30% and 40%, respectively.

The existing company has a market value of 8.7 billion, corresponding to 19PE21X, the launch of employee stock ownership plans and share repurchases, sharing growth dividends with employees, showing development confidence, and maintaining a “strong recommendation-A” level.

The company announced the second phase of the employee stock ownership plan and budget, showing strong development confidence.

The second phase of the employee stock ownership plan is to raise no more than US $ 100 million, with a lock-up period of 12 months and a duration of no more than 24 months.

1) The stock repurchased by the company holding a special account to repurchase the stock price is the average repurchase price of 36.

37 yuan (as of May 10), a 25% discount from the current price.

2) The number of people covered by the plan does not exceed 900, of which 6 are supervisors. The scope of this incentive plan is further expanded than that of the previous period of 600.

3) The chairman promises to guarantee that if the final amount that can be allocated to employees is lower than the amount of the subscription amount instead of the amount after the repeated points, the chairman will make up the difference.

International planning and development capabilities and comprehensive VIP services build a good endogenous growth strength, supplemented by a variety of industry-oriented layouts mainly based on direct sales, which have become the core of the company’s differentiated competition and drive performance performance peers.

1) Endogenous and sustained high growth: The company focuses on R & D and fabric innovation to form product differentiation advantages.

At the 深圳桑拿网 same time, with the use of multi-series layouts, under the support of high-quality products and comprehensive VIP services, and the upgrade of channels such as location adjustment / expanding area / for boutiques and large-scale experience stores, the three major brands of the same series increased in 18-19-191.The speed is stable at about 15% -20%.

It is expected that the same store will maintain double-digit levels this year.

2) Epitaxy expands steadily.

The average net opening in 18 years was 112 to 764, an increase of over 17%, including 80 major brands and 30 new brands.

It is estimated that the main brand’s net opening scale in 19 years will be about 80, with a total of over 800; new brands will increase by 30-40, and the total is expected to reach 80.

Tourism and vacation brands are officially launched and are expected to be launched in 2020.

The company launched a new travel and vacation brand CARNAVAL DE VENISE (Venice) in early 18th. This series meets the core needs of the four major users of functionality, shooting effects, family wear, and fashion.The series is reduced by 40%.

The channel is mainly distributed in shopping malls and high-end department stores. Depending on the advantages of internal channels, it will open stores independently. It is expected that the number of stores will reach 80 by the end of 19th. It is still mainly incubating single-store operations. It is expected that after two years of cultivation, it will enter in 2020.The main expansion period has become a new growth point for the company’s performance.

Profit forecast and investment advice: In the context of consumption upgrade, brand owners have created high-quality differentiated tones to become entry tickets to enter the high-end market.

At present, the company’s commodity-side development capabilities are expanded and the foundation of the high-end market is expanded.

The strength of same store growth is gradually developing in the weak city environment. It is expected that this year will continue to maintain 15-20% same store growth. At the same time, combined with the expansion and optimization of store area and location and the incremental contribution of new brands, it is expected that this year’s extension is expected to contribute to the growth of China Shuangshuang chanceTen years of revenue and net profit will achieve nearly 30% and 40% growth, respectively.

Increase the EPS for 2019-2021 to 2.

26, 2.

85 and 3.

55 yuan forecast.

The current market value is 8.7 billion, corresponding to 21X and 17X for 2019PE / 2020PE, respectively. The estimates are not high. The company merged differentiated brand tonality, refined channel operations, and efficient internal control. High growth is expected to continue.

The launch of the employee stock ownership plan and share repurchases, sharing growth dividends with employees, showing development confidence, and maintaining a “strong recommendation-A” rating.
Risk reminder: Due to the domestic macroeconomic impact, the risk of high-end demand growth rapidly decreasing; the risk of the incubation of tourism and holiday series not meeting expectations.

Yunnan Copper (000878)： Mining, dressing and smelting in 2020 is expected to fully transform the potential of production resources

Yunnan Copper (000878): Mining, dressing and smelting in 2020 is expected to fully transform the potential of production resources

The performance of the first three quarters of 2019 was beautiful, and Q4 volume parity rose. Considering the impairment factor at the end of the year, it is expected that the growth rate will remain high in 2厦门夜网019.

First, in the first three quarters of 2019, the company benefited from the expansion of the consolidated copper smelting and smelting capacity of the Pulang copper mine.

1.7 billion, +44 a year.

78%. Considering the stable release of Q4 output and the slightly higher copper price and Q3, it is expected that the company’s Q4 main business profit will even improve month-on-month.

Second, on December 21, the company announced that it is expected to accrue asset impairment losses2.

1.7 billion, mainly for accounts receivable 2 formed in February 2012 for Kunming Wanbao Jiyuan Biotechnology.

7.4 billion (unprovided amount 2).

540,000 yuan, accounting for the proportion of accounts receivable in the mid-term report in 2019.

8%).

According to the 2019 Interim Report, accounts receivable in the joint venture Liangshan Mining2.

2 billion receivables, with an accounting period of less than one year, and reduced parent company control, and the risk of bad debts is small; the remaining unaccounted for bad debts with an age of more than 5 years is zero.

4.1 billion.

The remaining accounts receivable of about 100 million pounds are needed for the company’s daily operations. Under the company’s strategy of strictly controlling the addition of new accounts receivable, the risk of error occurs; the completion of this provision will help improve theThe quality of the company’s accounts receivable substantially absorbed the historical burden.

In 2020, the company’s production capacity of mineral copper and smelted copper is expected to reach full capacity, and the production and sales of major products are expected to reach a new high.

In terms of copper minerals, Pulang Copper Mine is expected to reach full production in 2020, and the output of copper metal rights and interests will continue to increase; in terms of copper smelting, the company’s halogen copper output will exceed 100 tons for the first time in 2019.Technological transformation has been implemented, and the company’s copper phosphate output is expected to reach full production.

Listed companies and groups have abundant resource reserves. The actual controller, Chinalco, has continuously improved its strength, and the company has great potential for resources.

First, the copper resources of listed companies are 513.

47 Absolutely, there are sufficient reserves of mineral rights and reserves of added value.

As of mid-2019, the company maintained a copper resource reserve of 513 and above 333.

47 for the first time, gold 74.

43 tons.

In the future, the company’s sanctions will continue to carry out geological surveys of deep mines of production mines.

In the Dongchuan Copper Mine, key mining areas such as the Pulang Copper Mine and the Yangla Copper Mine have intensified their deep-side exploration and obtained resource reserves; they will gradually continue to develop mining companies and mine resource acquisitions.

According to the company’s announcement, actively seeking domestic and foreign high-quality resource projects to ensure that the increase in resource reserves meets the needs of sustainable development of enterprises.

Second, it is expected that Yunnan Copper Group, the direct controlling shareholder, has the potential to inject resources.

First, as of the end of 2017, the Group has 21 mines in production and 2 mines under construction in Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai, Tibet and other regions. The reserve of resources (metal) is 870 copper, of which the listed company’s resource reserve is about 510., Listed companies have 360 initial resources in vitro.

Second, the company is expected to continue to receive support from Chinalco Group.

According to the company’s announcement, the company, as one of the core companies of the Chinalco Group’s copper industry sector, is also the only listed platform company in the copper industry sector, benefiting from Chinalco’s extensive business resources and a small number of project cooperation, resource expansion and stability with major banksPreferential credit relationships, the company continues to receive the support of Chinalco Group in terms of business, resources and finance.

In addition, according to the “China Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. Prospectus for the Third Phase of Ultra-short-term Financing Bonds in 2019”, Chinalco owns the core assets of the Toromocho copper mine.

The mine is located in the core area of the Morococa mining area in central Peru, with a copper grade of 0.

46%, Mo grade 0.

02%, silver grade 6.

89 grams / ton, the mine has copper equivalent metal resources of about 1,200 tons, is one of the world’s largest copper mines, and its copper resources account for about 19% of the total domestic copper resources.

In 2016, the Toromocho copper mine produced copper-containing concentrates16.

83 years, 2017 production of copper-containing concentrates19.

34 Initial.

In June 2018, the second-phase project of the mine is planned to invest 1.3 billion US dollars for expansion. After the expansion, the annual output of copper concentrate will increase to 30 tons.

2019?In 2021, the global supply of copper ore is tight overall. Considering the solid cost support, the inventory consumption ratio is at an extremely low historical level, the margin of demand is picking up, and the copper price has reached a significant rebound.
Our estimates indicate that 2019?
The global copper supply and demand balance will be 10 in 2021.

8, -10.

In terms of 2, 16.

2Baseline, showing a tight balance overall, especially 2019?
In 2020, the copper supply and demand gap will continue to expand.

The current copper price has fallen to the 90th line of the global marginal cost curve, with solid cost support. The inventory consumption ratio of global copper exchanges has changed to a historically low position. Domestic bonded zones and social stocks have replaced lows in the past four years. Copper prices are sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand.Sexuality has been systematically enhanced.

On this basis, taking into account the current general trend of global monetary easing, the China-US trade agreement has been reached gradually, and the internal counter-cyclical easing policy has gradually come into effect. The short-term economic panic and the gradual escape from substantial relief will be added, and the next spring will be supplemented. The copper price is expected to increase.Ushered in a significant rebound.

Investment suggestion: Give “Buy-A” rating with 6-month target price of 16 yuan.

We follow the copper price for 2019-2021.

80,000 yuan, 5.

20,000 yuan, 5.

The calculation is based on the assumption of 20,000 yuan. After considering the impairment of assets in 2019, the company will gradually realize its net profit attributable to its mother6.

100 million, 9.

300 million and 11.

0 million, EPS is expected to be 0.

36 yuan, 0.

54 yuan and 0.

65 yuan.

As the company’s copper concentrates and smelting copper capacity reach full production, the company’s output has increased significantly, and the performance elasticity of copper prices has increased. In addition, the controlling shareholder’s interests can be injected into the asset potential to enjoy a certain estimated premium.

The company is given a “Buy-A” rating with a six-month target price of 16 yuan, which is equivalent to a 30x dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2020.

Risk reminders: 1) The global economic growth rate exceeds expectations; 2) Global copper mine output exceeds expectations, and the copper supply disruption rate exceeds expectations; 3 The company’s product output is lower than expected, and subsequent mine injections are lower than expected.

Changyuan Power (000966)： Onshore wind power will be put into production successively, and the pre-work of Suizhou Thermal Power will start

Changyuan Power (000966): Onshore wind power will be put into production successively, and the pre-work of Suizhou Thermal Power will start
Onshore wind power projects have been put into production one after another, and it is expected to consolidate the operating results: as of the end of June 2019, the company has 9 grid-connected wind power projects.350,000 kilowatts, achieving a net profit of 20.9 million in the first half of 2019.Recently, the company issued an announcement that the company’s Jiyangshan wind power project (50,000 kilowatts) has realized all grid-connected power generation, and it is expected that the average annual power grid1.100 million kilowatt-hours; Zhonghua Mountain Phase II Wind Power Project (4.950,000 kilowatts) to achieve the first grid-connected power generation, and it is planned to achieve all grid-connected power generation in the first half of 2020, with an average annual grid-connected power of 0.900 million kilowatt hours.The company actively develops wind power projects with better profitability, which is expected to further consolidate the company’s operating performance. Suizhou Thermal Power started the preliminary work and opened up the space for thermal power growth: According to the announcement, the company signed the “Suizhou Thermal Power Project Development Agreement” with the People’s Government of Suizhou City, Hubei Province on December 30, 2019.According to the “Agreement”, the company plans to 北京夜网 carry out the development and construction of 2 × 660,000 kilowatts of gas-fired power projects in Suizhou City, Hubei Province. The company promises to give priority to Suizhou projects among similar projects developed, and the two parties agree to start construction before the end of 2020.The project was included in the list of supplementary large-scale coal power projects in the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” of Hubei Province’s Energy Development, and it is still in the preliminary preparation stage.Taking into account the tight balance of power supply and demand in Hubei Province, Suizhou currently does not have a large-scale power supply support point.The advancement of this project was approved by the Development and Reform Commission of Hubei Province in 2020 and put into production around 2022. It will help improve the 都市夜网 regional power grid structure and meet the demand for power load growth. Expect to use the hourly value.The company is currently operating 3.59 million kilowatts of thermal power units. After the Suizhou project is put into operation, it is expected to increase the installed capacity of thermal power by 37%, which will significantly increase the profitability of thermal power. The power supply and demand pattern has continued to improve, and coal prices have expanded or even declined. Fourth-quarter results are expected to exceed expectations: Benefiting from power supply-side reforms, Hubei’s power supply and demand pattern has improved significantly.Hubei Province has a better macroeconomic operating situation. In 2019, power consumption increased faster than expected, coupled with the decline in local hydropower output, thermal power units increased.According to the CEC data, in January-November 2019, Hubei’s entire society consumed 2017 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, an increase of more than 7%.4%.Of which: the secondary, tertiary and residential electricity consumption were 1211 respectively.200 million kilowatt hours, 379.700 million kilowatt hours, 404.700 million kWh, an increase of 5 in ten years.6%, 10.8%, 9.6%.In terms of coal prices, coal prices in Hubei Province have been steadily declining, and the coal price index for 11 consecutive months has continued to increase negatively.From July to November 2019, the monthly thermal coal price index of Hubei Province fell by 8 respectively.0%, 7.9%, 6.3%, 7.3% and 10.5%.As of the end of November, the province’s coal coal inventory for thermal power plants was 531.5 Initially, the average daily coal consumption was 12 in the same period of the previous year.4Minimum exchange rate / day calculation, can meet 43 days of consumption, the historical high level of inventory.Coupled with the recent dry season of hydropower, the output of hydropower was seriously insufficient. In December, the decline in coal prices continued to expand and further expanded. The performance of thermal power in the fourth quarter is worth looking forward to. The Haoji Railway was put into production on schedule and is optimistic about the continuous improvement of the company’s thermal power profit: as of the end of June 2019, the company had a installed capacity of 370.50,000 kilowatts, of which 3.59 million kilowatts are thermal power and 9 are wind power.350,000 kilowatts, biomass 2.160,000 kilowatts, thermal power accounted for as high as 97%, there are elastic characteristics of high coal prices.Due to the lack of coal resources in Hubei Province, coal combustion mainly comes from long-distance transportation from other provinces, and fuel costs remain high.Considering that the national coal supply and demand indicators have improved significantly in 2019, the Haoji Railway was put into production at the end of 2019, which directly alleviated the dual problems of “high procurement costs and high transportation costs” in central China.The company is located in the Central China Electric Load Center, Changyuan Yifa is in the Electric Load Center in Wuhan, Jingmen Company is located in the power support point in the middle of Hubei Power Grid, and Hanchuan Yifa is an important large power point in Jiangbei., Proactively plan power. At the same time, by combing the construction progress of key power projects in Hubei Province, it can be trimmed, and large-scale power generation projects put into operation in 2019-2020 can be replaced, and the power supply and demand layout of Hubei Province is expected to improve significantly.Against the background of high power consumption growth, the stock of thermal power units is expected to achieve breakthrough utilization hours, and is optimistic about the company’s continuous improvement in thermal power profit. Investment suggestion: Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 5.5 yuan.We expect the company’s revenue growth to be 10 in 2019-2021.0%, 0.4%, 1.6%, net profit is 5 respectively.900 million, 7.100 million, 7.9 trillion, corresponding to a P / E ratio of 8.8 times, 7.3 times and 6.5 times. Risk warning: coal prices continue to be high, the price of electricity is down, and the progress of power projects is less than expected.

Hongcheng Water (600461) released a comment： benefit from water price adjustment 19 years performance increased by 40% -60% in ten years

Hongcheng Water (600461) released a comment: benefit from water price adjustment 19 years performance increased by 40% -60% in ten years

Expected performance growth of 40% -60%.

The company released the 2019 performance forecast, and expects to realize net profit attributable to mothers in 20194.

71-5.

370,000 yuan, an annual increase of 40% to 60%.

The 杭州桑拿网 performance increase was mainly due to the increase of the company’s water price by 0 from November 1, 2018.

45 yuan / ton (up 28 from previous years.

5%) to increase revenue from water supply business, part of the second phase of sewage treatment and expansion and upgrading projects put into operation and increase in reported gas sales volume led to increased gas sales revenue.

The non-public offering was completed, and the scale of the sewage treatment business accelerated.

The company’s non-public offering was completed in November 2019, and the fundraising was 8.

94 billion is accelerating the standard expansion and construction, and it is expected to increase sewage treatment capacity by 10 per day.

As of the end of 18, the company’s sewage treatment capacity was 236.

Every day, the company is expected 杭州桑拿 to put into operation a sewage treatment capacity of 18 per day in 19 years, and will continue to win the bid for a sewage treatment project (July 19, Liaoning Project 2020 1).

5 daily / day scale, long-term 3 months / day, Jan. 20 pre-bid Nanchang 40 scale / day scale), the company’s sewage treatment scale accelerated expansion.

Shares were granted to 15 executives and core backbones to bind the interests of the company’s shareholders.

The company’s annual stock incentive plan for 2019 is 588.

50,000 shares have been granted, and the grant price is 3.

05 yuan / share.

Follow-up unlocking conditions are linked to performance evaluation targets: the average annual ROE in 2020-22 is not less than 9%, the compound revenue growth rate is not less than 10%, and not less than the 75th place value of the benchmark company, and the dividend is 2020-2022The proportion is not less than 40%, which highlights the company’s long-term incentive mechanism.

The trend of three-wheel drive of water supply + sewage + gas continues, maintaining the “buy” level.

It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

53, 0.

66 and 0.

79 yuan / share, corresponding to PE at the latest closing price of 11 respectively.

3, 9.

1, 7.

6 times.

The price increase of water supply has been completed to enhance the profitability of assets. The fixed increase will help the expansion and upgrading of sewage plants. The Three Gorges Group increased its holdings4.

9% look forward to follow-up business collaboration.

It is expected that the company’s performance in 2019-2021 will still maintain a compound growth rate of more than 20%. We give the company 12 times PE estimation in 2020, which corresponds to a reasonable value of 7.

91 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

risk warning.

The financing environment has been tightened, the price adjustment progress after the upgrading of sewage has fallen short of expectations, the cost of gas has increased, and downstream demand has fallen short of expectations.