GAC Group (601238) Company Review: Steady Close 20 Years of Autonomy & Fick Is Expected to Meet the Turning Point

GAC Group (601238) Company Review: Steady Close 20 Years of Autonomy & Fick Is Expected to Meet the Turning Point

Event: GAC released December production and sales report: total sales of 18.

60,000 vehicles, 0% per year, -5% from the previous month.

Among them, ① autonomous 3.

90,000 vehicles, -22% a year, + 2% MoM; ② joint venture: Guangben 6.

30,000 vehicles, -8% at the beginning of the year, -9% MoM, progressive + 4%; Guangfeng 5.

80,000 vehicles, + 37% a year, -15% month-on-month, cumulative + 18%; 10,068 units of Guangfei Ke, -1% per year, + 67% month-on-month; Guang Mitsubishi 1.

40,000 vehicles, + 1% a year, + 13% MoM.

Opinion: The sales volume of GAC Group has narrowed further.

Among them, Guangfeng continued to maintain two-digit high growth; Autonomous continued to climb with GS4, and sales continued to improve on a sequential basis; Guangfeike temporarily declined slightly, and wholesale “bottom-flooding” approached the angle of attack.

In terms of new models, Guangben Haoying went on sale at the end of November and 青岛夜网 benchmarked the 200,000-year sales model CR-V. Guangfeng Weilanda tried to go on sale in April and benchmarked the 100,000+ annual sales model RAV4. Sales are worth looking forward to.
In addition, the company has set a sales target of 8% growth 20 years ago, but we think there is hope to exceed it.

[Japanese joint venture]Japanese joint venture brands of “King of Stock” continued to rise.

Guangfeng continued to be strong in December, with a 37% increase in sales growth.

Although Guangben fluctuated slightly in December, the new compact SUV Haoying is in the climbing phase.

It is estimated that Hao Ying fills the gap of Guang Ben in the compact SUV field; the reorganization, Hao Ying fully benchmarked the 200,000-year-old star model Tomoto CR-V, and promoted the sales of Guang Ben to a higher level.

Guangfeng Weilanda will be listed in April 20th. While the brand is in a strong product cycle, the company is accelerating the layout of new projects to promote the rise of the brand: 1) Guangfeng new energy vehicle production capacity expansion, the first and second phases of the project totalAn additional 400,000 units / year will be produced and it is planned to be completed and put into operation in 2022. 2) The construction of Guangfeng Engine’s TNGA series engine construction project has been implemented with a project scale of 43.

20,000 units / year, planned to be completed in 2021. Guangfeng is expected to increase sales in the next 2-3 years.

In the long run, we believe that behind the Japanese product cycle, there is a change in car consumption sentiment, long-term vehicles such as fuel-saving economy and low-maintenance maintenance have improved significantly. The trend of Japanese expansion in the future will become more and more significant.

[Passenger car]The new product cycle is about to start.

GAC Trumpchi has implemented large-scale destocking since 2019, and the current inventory is healthy.

In terms of sales, the Trumpchi brand climbed with the GS4 in December, and sales continued to pick up month-on-month.

In addition, the discount of the old GS4 has penetrated (about 20,000). After the new model is launched, the discount will be significantly narrowed, and there will be no discount in the short term, which is expected to drive a significant increase in the profitability of the Trumpchi brand.

Investment suggestion: With the gradual warming of the industry, it is recommended to focus on the high growth of the Japanese line of GAC Group and the repair of independent profitability.

Because the Air Force is optimistic about the company’s sales growth in the fourth quarter, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother for 2019-2021 is 77.

3, 104.

5, 133.

8 trillion down to 73.

7,104.

2,130.

30,000 yuan, EPS is 0.

72, 1.

02, 1.

27 yuan / share, continue to give a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: automobile production and sales, competitiveness of Japanese products, Chuanqi sales improvement is less than expected, etc.