Honglu Steel Structure (002541): The expectation of obtaining orders is capacity

Honglu Steel Structure (002541): The expectation of obtaining orders is capacity
Event: The company announced the status of the first-level sales contracts signed in 19 years.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of +26.6%, the growth rate gradually changed from 18 years -4.4.Among them, the newly signed project order 11.4 billion, -62.6%; Newly signed material order 138.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of +57.6%.  The company’s strategy focuses on materials processing, and orders for capacity expansion progress orders. The company’s new breakthrough unit in 19 years continued to increase the proportion of material processing orders, which increased by +18.2 pieces to 92.4%, further verifying that the company’s development strategy focuses on the steel structure manufacturing business.The material processing business has stable returns, better cash flow, and rapid expansion of production capacity.19 new material orders: +57.6%, a growth rate of +14 per second.2pcts, continued high growth.In 2H19, the company’s newly signed contract amount was 79.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of +10.5%, a growth rate of ten years-19.9 pieces; of which, material orders increased by 36.4%, a growth rate of ten years -13.0pcts.  We think the overall scale of the company’s order acquisition lies in its capacity expansion progress.Material processing order turnover is fast, usually within one year or less.A rough estimate is that if the material processing order price is 5,000 yuan / ton, the 19-year raw material order amount is 138.100 million, corresponding to the output of steel structure is about 276 tons.According to the plan of the combined company, it is estimated that the production capacity will reach 300 tons at the end of 19 (budget capacity concept), and the effective combined capacity will be about 240.Existing orders correspond to excess capacity.  The increase in steel structure penetration has driven demand, and the rapid deployment of production capacity has led to deterministic growth in performance.+ Residential “, and 天津夜网 in 19 years the province introduced a pilot program of steel structure housing, policies are frequently used, and the residential area of steel structure layout will speed up the industry, and downstream demand is expected to remain strong.The company has excellent cost management and control capabilities, which has advantages over previous ones. The cost advantages are derived from the advantages of site selection, production capacity and a comprehensive waste management system.At present, the company is in the period of capacity expansion, which is expected to reach 400 tons by the end of 20 years. The rapid deployment of capacity will bring a deterministic increase in performance.  Maintain “Buy” rating: We maintain our previous profit forecast and expect to return to net profit for the mother in 19-214.5/5.3/6.2 billion, 3 淡水桑拿网 after cancelling government subsidies.8/4.7/5.800 million (corresponding to YoY is 51.8% / 21.5% / 24.3%), the current price corresponds to PE (supplementary subsidy) 15x / 12x / 10x, maintaining the “Buy” rating.  Risk warning: policy promotion / capacity expansion / government subsidy exceeds expectations, steel prices change sharply