Ganneng (000899) semi-annual report comment: H1 return to mother’s net profit increased by 88% per second Q2 gross profit margin increased month-on-month look forward to the new progress of Fengdian Phase III

Ganneng (000899) semi-annual report comment: H1 return to mother’s net profit increased by 88% per second Q2 gross profit margin increased month-on-month look forward to the new progress of Fengdian Phase III
The company released its semi-annual report for 2019, with revenue of 12 in the first half of the year.6 trillion, an increase of 5 in ten years.46%, of which Q1 and Q2 are prolonged by 15 respectively.9%, minus 3.8%; gross profit margin 21.92%, compared to 12 in the same period last year.44%, of which Q1 and Q2 are 20% and 24% respectively; net profit attributable to mother 1.9 trillion, an increase of 88 a year.42%, of which Q1 and Q2 exceeded the added value of 275 respectively.4%, 33.31%, Q2 growth rate fell; deducted non-attributed net profit1.800 million, an increase of 97 in ten years.51%; EPS is 0.19 yuan / share, compared with 0 in the same period last year.1 yuan / share.In the first half of the year, the company’s performance increased significantly. The preliminary results were as follows: electricity growth, increased on-grid tariffs, and thermal coal prices. Jiangxi Hydropower has squeezed thermal power. It is reported that the company’s Q2 thermal power charge caused single-quarter revenue decline in the first half of the year. Jiangxi Province ‘s power demand maintained high growth. The province ‘s power consumption was 70.4 billion kWh, an increase of 7.54%, higher than the national 254 units.This year, Jiangxi Province has experienced a large compression, and the water supply from the reservoir is better.We estimate that the hydropower generation in Q1 and Q2 will increase by 24, respectively.8%, 28.4%, thermal power increased by 3 in ten years.6%, 1%, the growth rate of Q2 hydropower generation has been further increased. Overlapping the thermal power unit for maintenance, the growth rate of thermal power generation is obvious.In the first half of the year, the company’s total power generation was 35.500 million kilowatt hours, an increase of 2 per second.66%, of which, each time the amount of thermal power is slightly reduced, the second-generation power generation of Fengdian is 33.100 million kilowatt-hours, the market share of electricity is about 24.6%; Hydropower generation has exceeded previous growth, Julongtan Hydropower Plant1.500 million kilowatt-hours, Baozishi Hydropower Plant has zero power generation.900 million kilowatt hours.Combining the power generation situation in Jiangxi province, we judge that the company’s Q2 thermal power generation has improved and driven Q2 operating income replacement.In addition, in the first half of the year, the company’s basic tariff for coal-fired power generation including taxes was zero.RMB 4,143 / kWh, the same as last year. From April 1st, the tax rate was changed from 16% to 13%. As a result, the on-grid tariff of thermal power generation including taxes increased significantly, increasing the company’s operating income. Coal prices continued to decline moderately, hydropower was added, Q2 gross profit margin increased by 4pct, and performance continued to be repaired. Data from Jiangxi Development and Reform Commission showed that the average price of standard coal purchased by coal-fired power plants in Q1 province was 906 yuan per ton.Including taxes, freight) was 903 yuan / ton, down 147 yuan / ton from the same period of the previous year, and the price of thermal coal in Q2 decreased further than Q1. Based on the Jiangxi Electricity Coal Price Index, the index in the first half of the year showed a monthly downward trend.The gross profit margin of Q1 / Q2 company is 20% and 24%. We think it may be: ① the unit price of standard coal decreases and the fuel cost decreases; ② the on-grid electricity price excluding taxes increases greatly; ③ therefore, the gross profit margin of hydropower is generally high because there is no fuel costFor thermal power, the increase in its power generation share also increases the gross sales margin.We judge that the price of thermal coal will decrease in the second half of the year, and the company’s performance will promote continuous improvement under the condition that the utilization hours are guaranteed. The progress of Fengdian Phase III project was increased to 19.78%, the company is fully pushing forward the resumption of Fenggong Phase III as a wholly-owned project of the company. It will build a 2 × 1 million kilowatt ultra-supercritical coal-fired generating unit. At present, only one of the 49 supporting documents for resuming work is being processed.The 2019 semi-annual report discloses the project progress 19.78%, ranked 5th in the 2018 semi-annual report.72% of existing consensus progress.In March of this year, the project 南宁桑拿 was removed from the “blacklist”, and the biggest obstacle to resumption of work may have been removed. Earnings forecast: We expect the company’s net profit attributable to its mother to be 3 in 2019-2020.42, 3.72 trillion, EPS is 0.35, 0.38 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminder: resumption of work does not meet expectations, coal prices rise, power consumption does not meet expectations, electricity prices are reduced