Changyuan Power (000966): Onshore wind power will be put into production successively, and the pre-work of Suizhou Thermal Power will start
Onshore wind power projects have been put into production one after another, and it is expected to consolidate the operating results: as of the end of June 2019, the company has 9 grid-connected wind power projects.350,000 kilowatts, achieving a net profit of 20.9 million in the first half of 2019.Recently, the company issued an announcement that the company’s Jiyangshan wind power project (50,000 kilowatts) has realized all grid-connected power generation, and it is expected that the average annual power grid1.100 million kilowatt-hours; Zhonghua Mountain Phase II Wind Power Project (4.950,000 kilowatts) to achieve the first grid-connected power generation, and it is planned to achieve all grid-connected power generation in the first half of 2020, with an average annual grid-connected power of 0.900 million kilowatt hours.The company actively develops wind power projects with better profitability, which is expected to further consolidate the company’s operating performance. Suizhou Thermal Power started the preliminary work and opened up the space for thermal power growth: According to the announcement, the company signed the “Suizhou Thermal Power Project Development Agreement” with the People’s Government of Suizhou City, Hubei Province on December 30, 2019.According to the “Agreement”, the company plans to 北京夜网 carry out the development and construction of 2 × 660,000 kilowatts of gas-fired power projects in Suizhou City, Hubei Province. The company promises to give priority to Suizhou projects among similar projects developed, and the two parties agree to start construction before the end of 2020.The project was included in the list of supplementary large-scale coal power projects in the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” of Hubei Province’s Energy Development, and it is still in the preliminary preparation stage.Taking into account the tight balance of power supply and demand in Hubei Province, Suizhou currently does not have a large-scale power supply support point.The advancement of this project was approved by the Development and Reform Commission of Hubei Province in 2020 and put into production around 2022. It will help improve the 都市夜网 regional power grid structure and meet the demand for power load growth. Expect to use the hourly value.The company is currently operating 3.59 million kilowatts of thermal power units. After the Suizhou project is put into operation, it is expected to increase the installed capacity of thermal power by 37%, which will significantly increase the profitability of thermal power. The power supply and demand pattern has continued to improve, and coal prices have expanded or even declined. Fourth-quarter results are expected to exceed expectations: Benefiting from power supply-side reforms, Hubei’s power supply and demand pattern has improved significantly.Hubei Province has a better macroeconomic operating situation. In 2019, power consumption increased faster than expected, coupled with the decline in local hydropower output, thermal power units increased.According to the CEC data, in January-November 2019, Hubei’s entire society consumed 2017 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, an increase of more than 7%.4%.Of which: the secondary, tertiary and residential electricity consumption were 1211 respectively.200 million kilowatt hours, 379.700 million kilowatt hours, 404.700 million kWh, an increase of 5 in ten years.6%, 10.8%, 9.6%.In terms of coal prices, coal prices in Hubei Province have been steadily declining, and the coal price index for 11 consecutive months has continued to increase negatively.From July to November 2019, the monthly thermal coal price index of Hubei Province fell by 8 respectively.0%, 7.9%, 6.3%, 7.3% and 10.5%.As of the end of November, the province’s coal coal inventory for thermal power plants was 531.5 Initially, the average daily coal consumption was 12 in the same period of the previous year.4Minimum exchange rate / day calculation, can meet 43 days of consumption, the historical high level of inventory.Coupled with the recent dry season of hydropower, the output of hydropower was seriously insufficient. In December, the decline in coal prices continued to expand and further expanded. The performance of thermal power in the fourth quarter is worth looking forward to. The Haoji Railway was put into production on schedule and is optimistic about the continuous improvement of the company’s thermal power profit: as of the end of June 2019, the company had a installed capacity of 370.50,000 kilowatts, of which 3.59 million kilowatts are thermal power and 9 are wind power.350,000 kilowatts, biomass 2.160,000 kilowatts, thermal power accounted for as high as 97%, there are elastic characteristics of high coal prices.Due to the lack of coal resources in Hubei Province, coal combustion mainly comes from long-distance transportation from other provinces, and fuel costs remain high.Considering that the national coal supply and demand indicators have improved significantly in 2019, the Haoji Railway was put into production at the end of 2019, which directly alleviated the dual problems of “high procurement costs and high transportation costs” in central China.The company is located in the Central China Electric Load Center, Changyuan Yifa is in the Electric Load Center in Wuhan, Jingmen Company is located in the power support point in the middle of Hubei Power Grid, and Hanchuan Yifa is an important large power point in Jiangbei., Proactively plan power. At the same time, by combing the construction progress of key power projects in Hubei Province, it can be trimmed, and large-scale power generation projects put into operation in 2019-2020 can be replaced, and the power supply and demand layout of Hubei Province is expected to improve significantly.Against the background of high power consumption growth, the stock of thermal power units is expected to achieve breakthrough utilization hours, and is optimistic about the company’s continuous improvement in thermal power profit. Investment suggestion: Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 5.5 yuan.We expect the company’s revenue growth to be 10 in 2019-2021.0%, 0.4%, 1.6%, net profit is 5 respectively.900 million, 7.100 million, 7.9 trillion, corresponding to a P / E ratio of 8.8 times, 7.3 times and 6.5 times. Risk warning: coal prices continue to be high, the price of electricity is down, and the progress of power projects is less than expected.