Changan Automobile (000625): Q4 or turning losses into independent improvement as the main driving force

Changan Automobile (000625): Q4 or turning losses into independent improvement as the main driving force
Q4 may turn around and become the main driving force for improvement. On January 31, the company announced the 19-year performance forecast, and it is expected to realize net profit attributable to mothers in -24?-29 billion US dollars, Q4 achieved net profit attributable to mother -2.4?2.6 ppm, 19 years of performance was slightly lower than expected due to compensation 佛山桑拿网 received from government subsidies.We believe that Changan Ford has not yet achieved a loss in the fourth quarter due to impairment and expense accrual, and Q4 investment income may continue to be negative.The company’s Q4 performance may turn a deficit. First of all, the performance of self-deduction is obviously improved, and sales and profits have increased.According to the company’s announcement, Q4 Company received a government grant of US $ 300 million, and we expect Q4 to make its own profit after deductions.Looking forward to 2020, Changan is autonomous and Changan Ford is in the predetermined model cycle. Sales and profits are expected to improve. EPS is expected to be -0 in 19-21.55, 0.71, 1.21 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.  The new product CS75 Plus has outstanding competitiveness, and Q4 Changan’s independent sales have greatly increased in 2019. Changan’s independent overall sales have been 850,000 units, each time -7.8%; Changan Ford’s overall sales were 18.40,000 units, at least -51.3%; Changan Mazda sales 13.40,000 units, at least -19.7%; Changan Group’s overall sales were 1.76 million units, -15.2%.The overall sales of ride-hailing in 2019 decreased by about 10%. Since the company did not launch new products in the first half of the year, the company gradually expanded sales and underperformed the industry. Changan’s autonomy is slightly better than the industry.In the fourth quarter of 2019, Changan’s independent sales increased by + 32%, Changan Ford’s sales increased by -20%, and Changan Mazda’s sales exceeded flat.Since September, Changan has independently launched a number of new models such as CS75plus, Auchan X7, CS55 plus, and sales and bicycle profitability have improved significantly.  We think Changan’s independent sales growth rate is expected to exceed 20% in 2020.  Ford Ruiji, Lincoln adventurer launched, Changan Ford sales are looking down. According to the company’s official website, on December 19, Changan Ford’s heavy-duty new car SUV Ruijie (replacement of the Tiger Tiger) was officially launched.There are three versions of the new car, which can be replaced by 2.0T four-wheel drive, the manufacturer’s guide price range is 18.98?twenty one.880,000 yuan.We think this model is reasonably priced and slightly lower than the competitive model. Is it expected that the long-term average sales volume will reach 4000?5000 units.On December 27, Changan Lincoln’s first domestic model, Corsair, started pre-sale, and the model was preset at 24.8?350,000 yuan, about 30,000 yuan cheaper to import MKC, we expect monthly average sales of 2,000?About 3000 units.According to the data from Auto House, in 2020, Changan Ford introduced the introduction of new vehicles such as the Explorer, Lincoln Flying Home, and Voyager. We believe that the conversion to new models will promote the improvement of sales and profits of Changan Ford.  Reduce the reduction point, enter the new model cycle, and maintain the “buy” rating. In the short term, the company’s new energy subsidiary plans to mix and change, sell Changan PSA equity, reduce blood loss points, and bring about 3 billion fair value changes to the company.Initially, Changan has entered the new model cycle, and sales and performance have great flexibility.Taking into account that the government subsidy in 2019 is lower than expected, and excluding the non-recurring gain of 3 billion US dollars from the sale of PSA and new energy subsidiaries in 2020, we estimate that the net profit attributable to mothers in 19-21 is -26.6,34,580,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS-0.55, 0.71, 1.21 yuan.Comparable companies evaluate an average 四川耍耍网 of 19 times PE in 2020, considering the company’s performance change breakthrough, given the company 16 in 2020?17 times PE conversion, giving a 20-year target price of 11.36?12.07 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.  Risk reminder: Domestic passenger car sales fall short of expectations, new model sales fall short of expectations, the epidemic affects car sales, and hybrid improvements are not up to expectations.